The Best 5 Books on Carmen M. Reinhart
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.
Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.
An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
Essays by prominent scholars and policymakers honor one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, discussing the themes behind his work.
Guillermo Calvo, one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, has made pathbreaking contributions in such areas as time-inconsistency, lack of credibility, stabilization, transition economies, debt maturity, capital flows, and financial crises. His work on macroeconomic issues relevant for developing countries has set the tone for much of the research in this area and greatly influenced practitioners' thinking in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. InMoney, Crises, and Transition, leading specialists in Calvo's main areas of expertise explore the themes behind this impressive body of work.
The essays take on the issues that have fascinated Calvo most as an academic, a senior advisor at the International Monetary Fund, and as the chief economist at the Inter-American Development Bank: monetary and exchange rate policy (both in theory and practice); financial crises; debt, taxation, and reform; and transition and growth. A final section provides a behind-the-scenes look at Calvo's career and intellectual journey and includes an interview with Calvo himself.
Leonardo Auernheimer, Fabrizio Coricelli, Padma Desai, Allan Drazen, Sebastian Edwards, Roque B. Fernández, Stanley Fischer, Ricardo Hausmann, Bostjan Jazbec, Peter Isard, Graciela L. Kaminsky, Michael Kumhof, Amartya Lahiri, Igal Magendzo, Enrique G. Mendoza, Frederic S. Mishkin, Igor Masten, Pritha Mitra, Alejandro Neut, Maurice Obstfeld, Edmund S. Phelps, Assaf Razin, Carmen M. Reinhart, Francisco Rodriguez, Efraim Sadka, Ratna Sahay, Rajesh Singh, Evan Tanner, Carlos A. Végh, Andrés Velasco, Rodrigo Wagner
Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross-country "contagion" of crises, and to generate information about the recovery path from crises.
This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides "... a wealth of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial countries," according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, vice president of the economics department at ABN AMRO Bank.